Online Simulator

Client Profile

Client’s organization is an international agricultural research center improves the understanding of national agricultural and food policies to promote the adoption of innovations in agricultural technology.

Purpose

To create an online (web-based application) simulator to analyze the welfare impact of food price changes on households’ welfare. The simulator will allow the final user to go online, simulate food price changes and analyze the welfare impact of such price changes on the population, or a subset of the population, for a given country or several countries.

Business Need

The objective is to make available of well-defined sets of information and analysis for managing global food crises and other future challenges in their respective countries. A strong national capacity to respond effectively and adequately to food policy challenges. The analysis was possible through traditional approach of excel programming.

Technical Solution

This simulator is a solution that presents information- and decision-support tools to strengthen the ability of policymakers, food policy experts, and researchers to respond quickly to dynamic developments in the world food system.

Features

  • 24/7/365 access to data and can do analysis
  • Multiple user interface with user level access and permissions to data
  • Ability to provide quick and adequate response.
  • User can upload own data and can perform simulations on it.
  • User has the option to download reports.

Tools and technologies used for implementation of website architecture

Technology used
  • PHP ,Template Engine Smarty
  • HTML, CSS and JavaScript
  • My SQL
  • Ajax

Online simulator

Simulations will be conducted at two levels:

  1. Single household simulation
  2. Country level simulations
  1. Single household simulations: The user will be asked to enter the following information for a single household:
    • Number of food groups for price simulation
    • Title for each of food group
    • Consumption shares for each food group
    • Production share for each food group
    • All demand price elasticities
    • All production price elasticities
    • Total household expenditure
    • Price changes for each food group

    2. The simulator will compute the compensated variation and direct effect.

  2. Country level simulations: The user will be given the option to make simulations with real data for a menu of countries.Country datasets have information for a representative number of households. Also the user will be given the option to upload his/her own datasets to conduct simulations.
    • User selects an already loaded country or is given the option to upload his/her own dataset
    • User has the option to enter demand and supply elasticities information. Also user will be given the option to enter different values for rural and urban households
    • User specifies price changes for simulation purposes

The simulator will compute the compensated variation and direct effect for every household in the active dataset and will generate the following reports (all reports will have option for download):

Report of descriptive statistics: this report will provide basic descriptive statistics for all variables in the datasets including the generated variables for “direct effect” and “compensating variation”. Statistics to be reported include: number of observations, mean, standard deviation, max, min.

Food consumption reports: Here user will be able to generate double entry table reports for food consumption shares by different categories: urban/rural, geographic regions, expenditure quintiles and poverty category.

Welfare impact reports: Here user will be able to generate double entry table reports to analyze welfare impact simulations.

User will have option to choose statistic to be computed:

  • Mean
  • Median

User will have the option to choose variable to be analyzed:

  • Compensating variation
  • Compensating variation as fraction of household total expenditure
  • Compensating variation as fraction of national aggregate consumption expenditure
  • Households with positive compensating variation (losers)
  • Direct effect
  • Direct effect as fraction of household total expenditure
  • Direct effect as fraction of national aggregate consumption expenditure
  • Households with positive direct effect (losers)

User will have the option to use entire sample or restrict sample to only households with positive compensating variation (or direct effect), these are households who are negatively affected by price changes (losers).

Poverty analysis reports: Here user will be provided with estimates of the following concepts:

  • Poverty deepening: initial poor household who became poorer with price shock
  • Poverty alleviation: initial poor household who became less poor with price shock
  • Poverty exit: initial poor household who became non-poor with price shock
  • Poverty entry: initial non poor household who became poor with price shock
  • Non-poor worse: initial non poor household who is negatively affected but still non-poor
  • Non-poor better: initial non poor household who is positively affected
  • Poverty before: if household is poor before price shock
  • Poverty after: if household is poor after price shock